Global carbon emissions to rise again in 2017

With a target of cutting emissions by about 202 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent by 2030 through blending petrol with ethanol a sugarcane-derived fuel Zimbabwe has made some progress

While carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel and industry in China are expected to rise about 3.5 per cent, after about two years of economic slowdown, India's contribution to the atmospheric build-up would go up by almost 2 per cent, the researchers have found.

In 2017, Carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels and industry are projected to grow by 2% (0.8% to 3%).

The report said the global emissions of Carbon dioxide from fossil fuels and industry were projected to rise by about 2% (with an uncertainty range of just between 0.8% and 3%) compared with the preceding year.

Carbon emissions in the US declined 0.4 percent in 2017 according to the Global Carbon Project-less than in previous years.

Indian emissions are expected to grow by 2 percent in 2017, but that is in comparison to increases of 6 percent per year over the past decade.

Also, Yang noted coal use for heating in rural villages in northern China is being replaced by natural gas, which may help offset coal growth in other sectors. "This is very disappointing", said Corinne Le Quéré, director of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research at the UK's University of East Anglia and who led the new research.

"This year we have seen how climate change can amplify the impacts of hurricanes with more intense rainfall, higher sea levels and warmer ocean conditions favouring more powerful storms. This is a window into the future", Le Quéré said. (GDP to rise 3.6% according to International Monetary Fund figures).

"The past three years - '14, '15, '16 - were quite exceptional in so far as that in the whole record, it's the first time that we saw emissions not growing at the same time as the global economy was growing quite strongly", he said. The US emissions are projected to decline by 0.4% this year when its GDP will grow by about 2.2%. Those from all human activities (fossil fuels, industry, and land-use change) will reach around 41bn tonnes, similar to the record high in 2015. Similarly, the European Union emissions are expected to decline by 0.2% in 2017 when this group of 28 nations would collectively record 2.3% increase in their GDP.

From 2014 to 2016 global Carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels and industry grew hardly at all.

Continuing the streak of sad news, atmospheric Carbon dioxide concentration reached 403 parts per million in 2016, and is expected to increase by 2.5 parts per million in 2017. Technologies-including wind and solar power-have surged about 14 percent each year in the last five years, though the starting point was low.

This year "might well prove a small blip on an otherwise flattening emissions curve", he said.

China, the world's largest greenhouse gas emitter, drove the unexpected and rapid growth of emissions in the 2000's and was behind the unexpected recent slowdown.

They said, "It is more likely that emissions will plateau or have slight positive growth, broadly in line with national emission pledges submitted to the Paris Agreement".

"Policy makers in Bonn are preparing for the Global Stocktake under the Paris Agreement, that will start in 2018 and occur every five years, and this puts huge pressure on the scientific community to develop methods and perform measurements that can truly verify changes in emissions within this five-yearly cycle", said Prof Le Quéré.

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