Mitch Henck: Trump may be doing better than polls suggest

Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton on the final Sunday of their White House race barnstormed through deciding battleground states and beyond - with their respective campaigns each claiming to have the momentum and bragging rights to voter enthusiasm.

A swathe of new surveys showed the Republican nominee closing in on Mrs Clinton's lead in national polling, with electors in three traditional Democratic-leaning states appearing to stoke a rally in support for Mr Trump.

The FBI recently announced it had discovered thousands of emails from Clinton's time as secretary of state on the computer of Anthony Weiner, the husband of top Clinton aide Huma Abeddin. While Obama carried MI by comfortable margins in both 2008 and 2012, polls have shown Clinton with a single-digit lead over Trump. In the Post-ABC poll released Friday, Clinton led Trump by 47 percent to 44 percent.

"You'd rather be in her shoes than Donald Trump's but it's not a terribly safe position", he added. FiveThirtyEight, Nate Silver's election forecast website, now has North Carolina going to Donald Trump, with Trump having a 51.2 percent chance of victory there.

The political drama is playing out in a state that has voted Democratic for president since 1984, but has been controlled by a Republican governor and Legislature the past six years.

The problem is that the same operative told me that early vote in very conservative Washington, Ozaukee and Waukesha counties, otherwise known as the "WOW" counties, was below what was needed by Wednesday of last week.

CBS gave Trump a one point lead in OH (46 to 45 percent) and showed a tied race in Florida (45 to 45 percent).

The unrest broke out when a protester trying to hold up a "Republicans against Trump" sign was wrestled to the ground and attacked by Trump supporters.

The new Post-ABC poll asked voters which candidate they favoured across five personal attributes debated during the campaign, including honesty, empathy, qualifications, moral character and temperament.

Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon is making her support for Hillary Clinton clear for all to see. Although Barack Obama won the state in 2008, it went red again in 2012, with voters choosing Mitt Romney over Barack Obama by a margin of about two percentage points.

There are sizeable minorities of Trump and Clinton supporters who do not vouch for some of their personal qualities.

Defections from Trump are sharpest on the issue of personality and temperament, with 27 percent of his backers saying he does not have a better personality and temperament than Clinton; 17 percent say he is not more qualified.

Trump was including the two states in a single day of campaigning covering five states.

Trump does seem to have surged in New Hampshire lately, but only 4 electoral votes are at stake there, so if he wins it he'd still need to find 7 more. The connection is weakest for temperament, with 77 percent supporting the candidate they prefer on this question while 6 percent choose the opposite (nearly all of them Trump supporters).

"We feel like we got a lead in Michigan", Clinton campaign chairman John Podesta said Sunday morning on NBC's "Meet the Press".

Yet among whites with college degrees, Clinton is ahead by 10 points, 51 percent to 41 percent. A Republican nominee hasn't won MI or Pennsylvania since 1988. This is a huge shift from just a few weeks ago, as on October 18th, Hillary Clinton had a 72.2 percent chance of winning North Carolina.

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